{"id":2139,"date":"2001-01-01T02:49:37","date_gmt":"2001-01-01T02:49:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/alexpfaff.com\/?post_type=research-paper&#038;p=2134"},"modified":"2001-01-01T02:49:37","modified_gmt":"2001-01-01T02:49:37","slug":"generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making:  the case of abrupt climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"authors\">Alexander Pfaff, Dorothy M. Peteet<\/div>\n<div class=\"published\">EOS (American Geophysical Union), May 15 2001<\/div>\n<p align=\"LEFT\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2001\/01\/EOSpenultimate.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png\" alt=\"PDF link icon\" \/><\/a>Earth-science predictions of natural phenomena are increasingly seen as valuable aids to improved societal decision making. Pielke et al. recently (EOS 7\/13\/99) argued persuasively that good predictions alone won\u2019t achieve better societal decisions. These authors\u2019 call to change the decision environments in which scientific predictions are used, though, may be more relevant to the daily activities of policy makers than to those of scientists. We see a role also for changing the information that scientists feed into those decision environments. In particular, scientists could better serve societal needs by generating not only possible scenarios, but also improved probabilities that decision makers need, including for decisions to be taken in the near future.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alexander Pfaff, Dorothy M. Peteet EOS (American Geophysical Union), May 15 2001 Earth-science predictions of natural phenomena are increasingly seen as valuable aids to improved societal decision making. Pielke et al. recently (EOS 7\/13\/99) argued persuasively that good predictions alone won\u2019t achieve better societal decisions. These authors\u2019 call to change the decision environments in which scientific predictions are used, though, may be more relevant to the daily activities of policy makers than to those of scientists. We see a role also for changing the information that scientists feed into those decision environments. In particular, scientists could better serve societal needs by generating not only possible scenarios, but also improved probabilities that decision makers need, including for decisions to be taken in the near future. &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,47,48,50],"tags":[68,97,164],"class_list":["post-2139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-4","category-theory","category-united-states","category-water-quantity-adaptation","tag-climate","tag-forecasts","tag-uncertainty","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change - Alex Pfaff<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change - Alex Pfaff\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Alex Pfaff\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2001-01-01T02:49:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Alex Pfaff\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Alex Pfaff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/\",\"name\":\"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change - Alex Pfaff\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2001-01-01T02:49:37+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#\/schema\/person\/4d3b58aaa9cabdc85658ebde818146f2\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png\",\"width\":50,\"height\":50,\"caption\":\"pdf link icon\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/\",\"name\":\"Alex Pfaff\",\"description\":\"Sanford School Faculty\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#\/schema\/person\/4d3b58aaa9cabdc85658ebde818146f2\",\"name\":\"Alex Pfaff\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f3868c769fd39eb9a960e0878a71e12b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f3868c769fd39eb9a960e0878a71e12b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Alex Pfaff\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/author\/asp9duke-edu\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change - Alex Pfaff","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change - Alex Pfaff","og_url":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/","og_site_name":"Alex Pfaff","article_published_time":"2001-01-01T02:49:37+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Alex Pfaff","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Alex Pfaff","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/","url":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/","name":"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change - Alex Pfaff","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png","datePublished":"2001-01-01T02:49:37+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#\/schema\/person\/4d3b58aaa9cabdc85658ebde818146f2"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2016\/06\/pdf-icon-50x50-1.png","width":50,"height":50,"caption":"pdf link icon"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/2001\/01\/01\/generating-probabilities-in-support-of-societal-decision-making-the-case-of-abrupt-climate-change\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Generating Probabilities in Support of Societal Decision Making: the case of abrupt climate change"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#website","url":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/","name":"Alex Pfaff","description":"Sanford School Faculty","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#\/schema\/person\/4d3b58aaa9cabdc85658ebde818146f2","name":"Alex Pfaff","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f3868c769fd39eb9a960e0878a71e12b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f3868c769fd39eb9a960e0878a71e12b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Alex Pfaff"},"url":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/author\/asp9duke-edu\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2139\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.sanford.duke.edu\/alexpfaff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}